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For months, Andrew M. Cuomo has silently inhabited a world of grand assumptions: that he was by far the strongest Democrat to run for governor of New York; that his poll numbers were not merely overwhelming but durable; that his fund-raising prowess would turn his inevitable campaign into a juggernaut.

Those assumptions excited a lot of people, if for no other reason than that they made him seem an infinitely more attractive candidate than the man who happened to be occupying the governor’s office.

Now that Gov. David A. Paterson has abandoned his campaign, however, all those assumptions about Mr. Cuomo — not to mention his record — will be scrutinized and challenged, if and when he does what everyone expects he will in a matter of weeks: quickly wrap up his investigation of Mr. Paterson and officially enter the race.

But Mr. Cuomo, 52, is more than just a poll choice, or the payee on the checks of campaign contributors.

In three decades of public life, including two prior statewide races, he has grappled with how to present himself, and how much to change: whether to be more humble, or less contentious; how to calibrate his legendary aggressiveness to suit a shifting political climate; when to leap to the attack and when to lay low.

On Friday, as Democrats began falling into line behind him, Mr. Cuomo’s supporters pointed to late March or early April as the likeliest moment for him to declare his candidacy. Mr. Cuomo signaled that he would not be hurried into the fray.

“It is in the best interests of all New Yorkers that the state government function through this difficult time and address the pressing budgetary problems we face,” he said in a statement. “This is an election year and I will announce my plans at the appropriate time. In the meantime, I will continue to focus on my job as attorney general and the many important issues we are pursuing.”

Until now, the focus on a potential primary with Mr. Paterson has allowed Mr. Cuomo to skirt questions about the race for governor by saying he was focusing on his job. Attorneys general, after all, do not draft budgets or seek givebacks from union leaders.

“Could you blame him for being coy, and not being available to the press on every issue, on things that aren’t in the purview of the A.G.?” asked the publicist Ken Sunshine, a close friend and longtime Democratic insider. “Obviously he’ll have to start talking about that, and he will. But he doesn’t need to go to school to learn how.”

Mr. Cuomo got his political education managing the campaigns of his father, former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, while still in his 20s — a precocious age at which to earn the nickname “Prince of Darkness.” Later, he built housing for the homeless, then rose to Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Clinton administration, becoming a confidant of Vice President Al Gore’s.

After Mr. Gore’s 2000 presidential defeat, Mr. Cuomo returned to New York and mounted an ill-advised gubernatorial primary campaign against the widely favored H. Carl McCall, who would have been New York’s first black chief executive. The Democratic establishment united against Mr. Cuomo and he withdrew to avoid a crushing defeat. Mr. Cuomo also showed a capacity for doing damage to himself, as when he derided Gov. George E. Pataki as having merely held Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani’s coat after the Sept. 11 attacks.

In defeat, and after a messy and embarrassing divorce a year later from Kerry Kennedy, Mr. Cuomo showed a capacity not just for rehabilitation, his admirers say, but for evolution. As a candidate for attorney general in 2006, he seldom took the bait dangled before him by opponents who hoped to trigger an uncalculated Cuomo eruption.

Once elected, he reached out to Democrats and to New Yorkers statewide with self-deprecating jokes about his youthful hubris. And as the state’s top law enforcement officer, he managed the feat of grabbing daily headlines without making himself the story. He shunned expansive interviews, though he would speak off the record for hours. NY1 News, the cable-TV channel, taunted him with a “Cuomo clock” showing how long it had been since he appeared on its program “Inside City Hall.”

“He’s let his actions talk, and he’s really stayed in the background,” said Doug Muzzio, a professor at Baruch College’s School of Public Affairs.

Just how much Mr. Cuomo has matured as a candidate since 2006 remains to be seen, but Mr. Sunshine acknowledged that his war chest and poll numbers, and the degree to which he benefited from comparisons to Governor Paterson, had made for “enormously high expectations.” He added, “It’s a potential danger.”

Kenneth Sherrill, a political science professor at Hunter College, put it this way: “I’m not sure that God could live up to people’s expectations today.”

Whether he proves a Democratic deus ex machina or not, Mr. Cuomo will be unable to keep quiet for much longer. The presumed Republican nominee for governor, Rick A. Lazio, a former representative, has been trying unsuccessfully to draw him into a debate about issues, demanding to know Mr. Cuomo’s positions on budget deficits, taxes and Medicaid.

The prospect of a Democratic primary made Mr. Lazio seem to be getting slightly ahead of himself. But Mr. Paterson’s withdrawal creates a two-man race.

“He can ignore me all he wants. He just can’t ignore the people of New York,” Mr. Lazio said in an interview on Friday. “It’s very clever to not show your cards, not take positions on issues so you don’t alienate anybody. But the public is at a point where they want a candidate who will treat them with respect, by explaining where you are on the issues regardless of whether it does some political damage.

“Cuomo’s gotten bucketloads of money from some of the most powerful special interests that control Albany,” he said. “How are you going to take them on?”

Of course, Mr. Cuomo’s supporters say that even now, keeping his head down remains the most effective rebuttal to such attacks. While Mr. Lazio assails Mr. Cuomo’s tactics, Mr. Cuomo can continue to press his claims against bailed-out bank executives, gouging retailers, polluters and insider traders.

Behind the scenes, Mr. Cuomo’s advisers say he is likely to alter his message to donors and Democratic allies, who have grown exceedingly anxious in the wake of Republican gains and Mr. Paterson’s problems. Now, they say, he and his advisers can at least begin assuring jittery Democrats that the day they have been waiting for is nearing.

“You sort of see some running room now,” said one adviser, who insisted on anonymity in keeping with Mr. Cuomo’s below-the-radar posture. “There’ll be a not-so-subtle change in the discussion, from this whole ‘Stay cool’ approach to ‘O.K., guys and gals, let’s get ready for a campaign and hopefully we’ll have a candidate in the next month or so.’ ”

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I was in the Safi Landmark Hotel on the explosion side of the building at the time of the attack. At 0630 I woke up to shattered glass and smoke. All my windows had been blown out.

The damage was so extensive that I imagine it must have been a car bomb. This was followed by further explosions and extensive gunfire.

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Although I’m the sort of person who puts emotion to one side at times like these, I really didn’t know what to do.

I eventually decided to leave, passing broken glass and blood in the lobby. My hand was gashed and I wanted to get it treated.

But a jumpy soldier screamed and almost shot me because he saw my backpack and thought for 10 seconds that I was a suicide bomber. Luckily he calmed down and I was allowed to leave.

I’m now safe in my boss’s house not far from the scene.

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DUBAI—Dubai police on Wednesday identified 15 new suspects in their probe of the January death of a senior Hamas leader here, and released a mountain of fresh, often-cryptic clues that authorities say they have picked up in the investigation.

The new suspects bring to 26 the number of people Dubai has identified as connected to the alleged murder of Mahmoud al Mabhouh, a senior leader of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. The new information released Wednesday raises a host of fresh questions, including over the involvement of two U.S. financial companies, one of which has offices in Tel Aviv.

Police officials weren’t available to comment. Some of the material was impossible to definitively interpret, and some information appeared contradictory.

In a statement and multimedia presentation on Wednesday, Dubai’s government released passport details, flight itineraries and credit-card information related to the 26 suspects. The police said many of them had flown in and out of Dubai several times, one as early as March 2009. At one point in November, police said, nine of the suspects converged on Dubai from several European cities, leaving a few days later.

Dubai police said Wednesday they had identified credit cards used by 14 of the suspects to book hotel rooms and pay for air travel. Police named the issuing bank as MetaBank, a unit of Meta Financial Group Inc., a financial company based in Storm Lake, Iowa.

The bank said it had no comment “because we are trying to confirm the accuracy of statements by the press.”

Dubai police identified cards issued by Britain’s Nationwide Building Society, IDT Finance of Gilbraltar, and Germany’s DZ Bank AG. A Nationwide spokesman told the Associated Press that bank officials were “investigating the reports and have no further comments.” The other European companies weren’t reachable late Wednesday.

Dubai also identified a company called Payoneer Inc., based in New York, though it wasn’t clear what precise role authorities believe that company played. In a chart released to reporters, authorities suggested the company distributed the cards on behalf of MetaBank.

According to its Web site, Payoneer offers online payment solutions, including arranging for employers to pay overseas workers through money transfers into prepaid MasterCard debit-card accounts. Payoneer is based in New York, but has offices in Tel Aviv.

The company’s chief executive, Yuval Tal, appeared as a commentator on the Lebanon war in 2006 on Fox News, identifying himself as a former Israeli special-forces soldier. Mr. Tal wasn’t available to comment.

The company is privately held, according to a news release issued by the firm earlier this week. In a statement, tThe company said: “We are aware of the news reports. We are cooperating with the bank and the authorities to explore the matter.”

United Arab Emirates officials have contacted U.S. authorities for assistance in the probe, according to a person familiar with the situation. (Dubai is one of seven emirates that make up the U.A.E.) A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi declined to comment.

Dubai police also said, without elaborating, that two suspects flew from Hong Kong to Dubai in August 2009 and left a few days later, via boat. Their destination: Iran.

Last week, Dubai identified 11 holders of European passports as suspects in the case. Dubai released detailed closed-circuit-television footage of 10 men and one woman landing in Dubai’s airport and checking into hotels. At one point, two suspects shared an elevator ride with their alleged victim, Mr. Mabhouh, the video showed. Some of the suspects were seen donning wigs and beards and dressing up like tourists, carrying tennis rackets, and impersonating hotel staff.

The 11 initial suspects quickly emerged, saying they were victims of identity theft. Governments in Britain, Ireland, France and Germany said they suspected the passports were issued fraudulently. On Wednesday, Dubai released details about the additional suspects, identifying them as British, Irish, French and Australian passport holders.

A spokesman for Britain’s Serious Organised Crime Agency, which has been charged with investigating the misuse of British passports, said it was trying to track down the passport holders. So far, it is unclear whether these passports were “genuine,” the spokesman said. Ireland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was trying to contact the holders of the passports concerned.

Australia’s government said Thursday it believes forged Australian passports were used by several suspects.

“At this stage, Australian officials have no information to suggest the three Australian passport holders were involved in any way, other than as victims of passport or identity fraud,” Foreign Minister Stephen Smith told Parliament. “Preliminary analysis by the [Australian Federal Police], together with the Australian passport office, shows that the three Australian passports appear to have been duplicated or altered.”

The release of the passport details last week triggered a diplomatic uproar in Europe, with the U.K. promising a full investigation into how its passports were able to be used fraudulently.

Dubai’s police chief said last week he was “99%” certain of involvement by the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. But other U.A.E. officials appear more circumspect. One person familiar with the situation said the focus of the probe is simply to identify and apprehend the suspects caught on video.

Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said earlier this week that there was no evidence linking Israel with the case. And several pieces of information released by Dubai police aren’t consistent with Israeli involvement.

Dubai has said it had two Palestinians in custody related to the case. Palestinian officials identified them as former security officials who worked in the Gaza Strip, but who fled when Hamas forcibly took over the territory in 2007. That raised suspicion of involvement by Palestinian rivals of Mr. Mabhouh, or of Hamas itself.

Wednesday’s disclosure that two suspects left Dubai in August by boat to Iran is also inconsistent with Israeli involvement. The two countries are bitter enemies.

Still, suspicion has broadly fallen on the Mossad, ever since Mr. Mabhouh’s body was found in a Dubai hotel room on Jan. 20. Last week, several European governments called in their Israeli ambassadors to discuss the matter. European government officials have called on Israeli counterparts to disclose any information Israel might have about the case.

European nations have already warned that there will be repercussions for Israel should it be found that the Mossad was responsible for the fraudulent passports. It would echo a previous dispute between Israel and the U.K. In 1987, Britain said it received an apology from Israel over the misuse of forged U.K passports by “Israeli authorities” and that it had received assurances that it wouldn’t happen again.

—Alistair MacDonald in London, Maria Abi-Habib in Dubai and Rachel Pannett in Canberra contributed to this article.

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WASHINGTON — The line between speech protected by the First Amendment and aid to terrorists appeared elusive at the Supreme Court on Tuesday, and the justices’ lively questioning complicated rather than clarified matters. They discussed travel to Cuba, the Communist and Nazi Parties, Tokyo Rose, treason and whether it is a crime to teach a terrorist how to play the harmonica.

Solicitor General Elena Kagan defended the law at issue in the case, which bars providing material support to terrorist organizations, as “a vital weapon in this nation’s continuing struggle against international terrorism.”

Even seemingly benign help is prohibited, Ms. Kagan said.

“Hezbollah builds bombs,” she said of the militant Islamic group. “Hezbollah also builds homes. What Congress decided was when you help Hezbollah build homes, you are also helping Hezbollah build bombs. That’s the entire theory behind the statute.”

But several justices seemed to view the case as more difficult than that, at least where the help at issue took the form of speech rather than conduct.

The law makes it a crime to provide not only aid like money and guns but also four more ambiguous sorts of help: “training,” “personnel,” “service” and “expert advice or assistance.”

David D. Cole, a lawyer for people and groups challenging the law in the case, Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project, No. 08-1498, conceded that the government might ban donations of money even if they were meant to support lawful activities like tsunami relief. Mr. Cole added that training in bomb-making might also be banned.

But pure speech about lawful activities, he said, is a different matter.

“This court has never upheld the criminal prohibition of lawful speech on issues of public concern,” he said.

Mr. Cole’s clients say they want to provide support for the legal, nonviolent activities of a Kurdish political party and a Tamil group, both of which have been designated as terrorist organizations by the State Department.

One plaintiff, Ralph D. Fertig, a retired lawyer, has said he wanted to help the Kurdish group, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, find peaceful ways to protect the rights of Kurds in Turkey and to bring their claims to the attention of international bodies.

Ms. Kagan said Mr. Fertig was free to say anything he wanted and to lobby anybody he liked so long as he did it independently of the banned group. She also said he might meet with the Kurdish group to discuss ideas. It was even all right, she said, to become a member of the group.

But the discussions turn criminal, Ms. Kagan said, if Mr. Fertig provides some kinds of advice.

That did not seem to satisfy Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. “So you can communicate, but the communications are censored,” Justice Ginsburg said. “You can be a member, you can attend meetings, you can discuss things, but there is a certain point at which the discussion must stop, right?”

Ms. Kagan responded, “The discussion must stop when you go over the line into giving valuable advice, training, support to these organizations.”

Ms. Kagan gave examples of prohibited conduct. A lawyer would commit a crime, she said, by filing a friend-of-the-court brief on behalf of a terrorist group. Helping such a group petition international bodies is also a crime, she added.

Justice John Paul Stevens asked if there was an authentic risk that Mr. Fertig would be prosecuted were he to make a presentation on behalf of the Kurdish group at the United Nations. He seemed to expect a negative answer.

But Ms. Kagan would say only that the matter would involve a “prosecutorial judgment.”

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. said at least one part of the law, banning expert advice, seemed vague to him. “I don’t know sitting down that I could tell,” he said, whether advice about peaceful advocacy was covered.

Justice Antonin Scalia came to the defense of radicals from another era in an apparent effort to distinguish Supreme Court precedents protecting some forms of dissent and advocacy during the cold war.

“The Communist Party was more than an organization that had some unlawful ends,” Justice Scalia said. “It was also a philosophy of extreme socialism. And many people subscribed to that philosophy. I don’t think that Hamas or any of these terrorist organizations represent such a philosophical organization.”

Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the court’s most consistent defender of First Amendment freedoms, said, “This is a difficult case for me.”

Support of any kind, Justice Kennedy said, “will ultimately inure to the benefit of a terrorist organization, and we have a governmental interest in not allowing that.”

But Justice Sonia Sotomayor suggested that the law might sweep too broadly by making, say, harmonica instruction a crime because it involves specialized training.

Ms. Kagan did not take a position on the question. But she did allow that “there are not a whole lot of people going around trying to teach Al Qaeda how to play harmonicas.”

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Some 4,000 Lufthansa pilots took part in a stoppage on Monday that was meant to last for four days, leaving thousands of passengers around the world stranded, on concerns the company could try to cut staff costs by shifting jobs to foreign units.

In a hastily called court hearing, pilots’ union Vereinigung Cockpit (VC) agreed late on Monday to suspend the strike until March 8 to give the deadlocked parties a chance to resume talks.

“VC has said that it is prepared to resume talks, and we are sticking with that,” said VC negotiator Thomas von Sturm. Lufthansa said it welcomed the decision, though it will take a few days until its flight operations have normalized again.

Airlines are reeling from the aviation industry’s worst year ever, in which demand dropped faster than capacity could be cut, but workers are becoming increasingly impatient with pressure from employers to tighten their belts.

Lufthansa aims to cut 1 billion euros ($1.36 billion) of costs by 2011, to become more lean while expanding abroad.

Europe’s national flag carriers have been trying to cut their costs as they lose market share to low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and EasyJet whose no-frills offers lure customers looking to cut their travel spending.

British Airways wants three-quarters of its crew to accept a pay freeze this year, along with other cost-cutting measures. BA cabin crew voted in favor of a strike to protest the cost cuts.

This is their second attempt at industrial action after a court forced the workers to abandon plans for a 12-day strike over Christmas that would have affected a million travelers.

Union Unite said on Monday that no dates for the work stoppage had been set but reiterated that crew would not strike over the Easter holiday at the start of April.

British Airways said the decision to strike was “completely unjustified” and vowed that it would “not allow Unite to ruin this company.”

MAKING DEMANDS

Adding to the upheaval, French air traffic controllers plan to go on strike for five days from Tuesday to protest Europe’s single sky policy, causing flight cancellations at the Orly and Paris-Charles de Gaulle airports.

One of the concerns raised by Lufthansa employees has to do with pay. The pilots have offered to forego increases if in return they get some control over which routes or pilot jobs are transferred to other group airlines.

Last September, Lufthansa completed a shopping spree, adding Brussels Airlines, Austrian Airlines and BMI to its stable of carriers. It also started Lufthansa Italia.

Lufthansa has rejected that demand, saying it would require ceding control over parts of business strategy to its workers.

Lufthansa’s last major dispute with pilots in 2001, which resulted in a costly pay increase, had to be mediated by Germany’s former foreign minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, as political pressure over strikes mounted.

The starting salary for a captain at Lufthansa is about 115,000 euros, more than for instance Easyjet’s starting salary at just over 80,000 pounds ($123,700), according to the companies’ recruiting websites. Media reports put the top end of Lufthansa pilots’ salaries at about 325,000 euros.

“As we have been saying last week, those pilots want to be treated like managers but are acting like underpaid bus drivers,” said a local trader.

Lufthansa expects the pilots’ strike will cost it about 100 million euros ($135 million), in addition to lost ticket sales and possible damage to its reputation as it grounds at least 3,200 flights out of a total 7,200 over the four-day period.

Shares in Lufthansa ended Monday’s trading session 1.7 percent lower at 10.995 euros, while British Airways was down 1.6 percent.

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WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama will urge states to better prepare high school students for college and careers when he meets Monday with the nation’s governors.

In remarks released Sunday by the White House, Obama praises governors for working in tandem with his Race to the Top program to reward school systems that raise standards and prove that through tougher student assessments.

At the same time, Obama will tell the governors that too many states are churning out graduates unprepared for the 21st century.

And he is taking a swipe at the Bush-era No Child Left Behind Act, declaring that “between 2005 and 2007, various states have lowered their standards in reading and math.”

The state chiefs are gathering at the White House as they wrap up the National Governors Association conference.

In his prepared remarks, Obama says U.S. education standards are fast falling behind those of other leading democracies.

“Because too many students are not learning the basic skills needed to succeed in college or work while they are in high school,” Obama says, “the nation sacrifices more than $3.7 billion a year in lost productivity and remedial education costs.”

In addition to supporting ongoing state efforts, Obama says he will commit an additional $350 million to the Race to the Top challenge to back “state-led partnerships to develop new, state-of-the art assessments aligned to college and career-ready standards.”

He is also telling the governors that his 2011 budget will call for the reauthorization of the 1994 version of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which would require states to meet six tough standards to help high school graduates prepare for college or careers. He says schools need to focus on better teacher preparation, improved teaching and tougher student assessments.

The Elementary and Secondary Education Act was first passed in 1965 and has been routinely reauthorized every five years. Its last incarnation was former President George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind Act. Under the measure, federal money is sent to the states to pay for teacher development, instructional materials, educational resources and promotion of parental involvement.

Obama’s reauthorization:

-Requires the states to “adopt and certify that they have college- and career-ready standards in reading and mathematics” to be eligible for the federal money.

-Establishes a $405 million outlay to help states “align teacher preparation practices and programs to teaching of college- and career-ready standards.”

-Provides grants totaling $400 million to states that adopt tougher student assessment programs.

-Dedicates $1.35 billion to the Race to the Top program in addition to stimulus money for the program.

-Allots $2.5 billion in the 2011 budget to a state grant program to support better teaching and leadership in the schools.

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In this recession, there are struggling apparel retailers all across the country. Then there’s Abercrombie & Fitch. The upscale teen retailer has suffered 10 straight months of double-digit same-store-sales declines. In the second quarter of 2009 alone, sales were down an eye-popping 30% across the company’s three name outlets: the flagship Abercrombie brand, which has 567 stores; Hollister, a 520-store teen chain; and Ruehl, a 29-store chain for young adults that Abercrombie shut down in June. Abercrombie & Fitch lost $26.7 million, which includes $24.4 million in charges associated with the closing of Ruehl, in the second quarter. During the same period in 2008, Abercrombie scored a $77.8 million profit. “Abercrombie has mismanaged this economic downturn more than any other retailer,” says Britt Beemer, CEO of America’s Research Group, a retail consulting firm.
(See TIME’s photos of stores that are no more.)

What lessons can be learned from the Abercrombie experience? The first has to do with pricing. As the economy spiraled downward and competitors like Aéropostale started discounting like crazy, Abercrombie refused to lower prices. The company insisted that price-cutting would cheapen the cachet of the brand.

You would figure that discounting would provide goodwill and build customer loyalty, especially in lean times. After all, with more grateful customers in tow, wouldn’t the company be in a great position to ride the upswing associated with an economic recovery, raising prices again when times get better?
(See TIME’s photos: the Mall of America landscapes.)

Not necessarily, say consumer experts. “According to various research findings, a company will have a tough time increasing prices once they’ve lowered them,” says C.W. Park, a marketing professor at the University of Southern California and editor of the Journal of Consumer Psychology. “Shoppers start to think the discounts are the base prices, and you risk alienating the shoppers if you raise them. Logically, you’d think that consumers would appreciate the lower prices and be understanding when they go back up. It doesn’t always work that way.”

But even if Abercrombie could justify holding firm on price, it did little else to entice customers. “If you provide interesting incentives, you can minimize losses while maintaining the luxury image,” says Park. “Offer milk and cookies in the store. Anything.”

He points to the Four Seasons hotel chain, which still charges premium prices for its rooms but started offering deals that let you buy a two-night stay and get a third one free. The hotel, in effect, is lowering its prices. But when things improve, it will be easier for consumers to accept the end of the free-room deal than a sudden spike in prices. We know you can’t give away rooms, but how can you jack prices up another $30? Although Abercrombie holds seasonal clearance sales, it shuns such regular promotions.

Abercrombie is having other problems. “They were the quintessential American prep brand, but the world changed on them,” says Edward Yruma, an equity research analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. “We’re living in the Gossip Girl era, where we’re seeing some funkier fashions.” Abercrombie’s classic look went out of style, and the company is just starting to sell dresses, which have performed well. “I’ve noticed that my kids aren’t open to anything Abercrombie these days,” says one mother of two teenage girls.

After releasing second-quarter earnings on Aug. 14, Abercrombie CEO Mike Jeffries admitted that the company missed some spring fashion trends. He said he plans to cut prices more aggressively. (The company did not respond to an interview request.) He might also want to change the Abercrombie vibe, which seems pretty tone-deaf to the times. At the New York City Abercrombie & Fitch store, whose neighbors include Prada and Gucci, a shirtless male model greets shoppers at the front and happily snaps pictures with the gawkers. Sales associates dance to hip-hop music in the aisles. There’s not one “For Sale” sign in the whole four-story place. A pair of men’s ripped jeans go for $90; women’s jeans are $80; a hooded sweatshirt with the Abercrombie logo is $60.

Meanwhile, at the New York City Aéropostale, whose neighbors include J.C. Penney, no one is shirtless but everything is on sale. No half-nude model greets you at the front door, but a guy barking “Buy one pair of women’s jeans, get another free” does. Sales associates don’t dance; they tell you deals. Ripped jeans are $30; women’s jeans sell for $49.50 (plus the freebie pair); the Aéropostale hoodie is $15, or a quarter of Abercrombie’s price.

Think it’s a coincidence that while Abercrombie’s second-quarter profits fell 134%, Aéropostale’s are up 83%?

When and if the economy heats up again, perhaps shoppers will return to the so-called aspirational brands like Abercrombie. But don’t bet on it. “Retailers don’t realize that consumers are spending less and doing O.K. with it,” says Beemer. According to Beemer’s research, only 40% of men and 20% of women say they’ll spend at high-end apparel stores again. “Abercrombie keeps working to protect their brand,” says Beemer. “But when you keep seeing 30% sales declines, you’re going to protect your brand into oblivion.”
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(CNN) — In a remarkable comeback, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich seemed set Monday to become the president of Ukraine — five years after he was ousted in a populist pro-Western uprising dubbed the “Orange Revolution.”

With 92 percent of the ballots processed, Yanukovich had won 48.48 percent of the votes.

His nearest rival, current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, garnered 45.87 percent, according to the country’s Central Election Commission.

If Yanukovich, the pro-Russia candidate wins, it would mark a reversal of fortunes for the leader who was removed from office in 2004 after he was declared the winner of that year’s presidential elections.

It would be an “indictment” of the failures of the leaders of the Orange Revolution in a country that has been severely hit by the global economic crisis, said CNN’s Moscow correspondent, Matthew Chance.

The expectation now was that the Ukraine would move closer to the Russian fold, particularly in terms of economic and foreign policies, Chance added.

Appearing on television after the polls closed Sunday night, Yanukovich said his opponent should begin preparations to step down. But Tymoshenko said her party was conducting a parallel ballot count and that each vote cast could be decisive.

Though members of her Party of Regions said they would rally and demonstrate regardless of the results, Tymoshenko seemed to have backed off an earlier remark to call her supporters out into the streets if voting appeared fraudulent.

On Sunday, Tymoshenko said she would await official results and a legal examination, according UNIAN, the Ukrainian Independent Information Agency.

Preliminary estimates showed about 69 percent turnout.

The two politicians have fought a bitter battle.

Yanukovich has a checkered election history. In 2004, the presidential ballot’s legitimacy was questioned and he was accused of stealing the race. Yanukovich’s win was later annulled.

“The country remembers times when there were presidents announced, they received congratulations and then things changed,” Tymoshenko said Sunday, referring to the 2004 race.

The revolution put the current president, Victor Yuschenko, in power. He ran for a second term this year, but, blamed for Ukraine’s faltering economy, he did not make the runoff.

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NASHVILLE — The 600 delegates at the National Tea Party Convention feel taxed to death, ignored by their elected representatives and the media, and appalled at the federal government’s spending — and there are millions of Americans just like them. Their anger has helped claim some political scalps, and they vow to “take back America.” What is unclear to them, and to the political establishment watching warily, is how they might do this.

It’s a critical moment for a movement that is unmistakably people-powered, that has been deliberately left leaderless to give voice to all frustrations. And although the mood here has been festive, even giddy, the fluidity of the group has been on full display.

Here was a California woman counseling people on how to register new Republican voters in their communities, but there were others who criticize the Republican Party as fiercely as they do the Democratic Party. Here attendees lashed out against the practices of the Washington establishment, but there a man from Memphis announced the formation of a political action committee. Here a former congressman delivered a fiery defense of America’s “Judeo-Christian values,” but there delegates walked out of a prayer session they thought crossed a line.

The convention, which concludes Saturday night with a keynote address by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (R), in some respects has had the feel of a big blind date. The delegates chatted each other up for a year online, checking out each other’s ideas and grievances, and they thought they might have something in common. Now they are spending a couple of days together, at a very nice resort, nibbling hibachi beef and browsing elegant “tea bag” jewelry, to see whether they like each other enough to be together.

Jeff Link, a luxury jewelry maker from New York, says that President George W. Bush started the fiscal policies that ruined the economy and that President Obama is making them worse, a belief shared by many here. But, he says, looking at the crowd, which is overwhelmingly white and middle-aged, “it saddens me not to see this gathering more diverse.”

Jim Linn, an electrical engineer from San Diego, says that strict term limits must be imposed to “get control of Congress” and that the Constitution must be interpreted in ways that match his understanding of the Founders’ intent. That would mean scrapping a lot of the amendments, he acknowledges, but not Nos. 2, 10, 16 and 17. He worries that a deeper depression is coming, and he tells his friends to store food, even though he knows it makes him sound like a crackpot.

Annie and Tom Runn, who have done missionary work in Haiti and Cuba, spent last week at the Republican National Committee gathering in Hawaii, where they live, and then came here. They can’t support Obama because he’s for “abortion and homosexuals,” Tom Runn said. “We would support and vote for Sarah [Palin] over and over and over.”

Lori Christenson, who started the Evergreen-Conifer Tea Party in Colorado in her house using the social networking site Meetup.com, wants politicians to act like their power comes from the people, not from their celebrity. Her group refuses to get involved with conservative social issues, which she calls “very, very divisive.”

“I am coming to realize at this convention,” she said Friday, over the thundering of a speaker from Judicial Watch, “that we are very, very different in terms of our beliefs. So now what?”

In Washington, where Democrats seemed oblivious to voter anger in Massachusetts and lost their supermajority in the Senate, White House officials are keeping a close watch on the developments here.

“The tea party movement has grown out of a sense of frustration about government here in Washington,” senior adviser David Axelrod said Friday in an interview that will air Sunday on C-SPAN. “It’s not isolated to Democrats or Republicans. . . . There is a sense that this town is consumed by politics, that people are consumed by their own ambitions and that we’re not dealing with the real problems.”

So far, the only formal political machinery to emerge from the convention is a planned political action committee announced Friday by Mark Skoda, a leader of the Memphis Tea Party, in front of a worldwide press corps of nearly a hundred. Skoda said the PAC would help elect up to 20 political candidates who advocate fiscal responsibility, less government, lower taxes, states’ rights and strong national security. But it was not clear that Skoda’s Ensuring Liberty Corp. would gain the support of the hundreds of tea party groups across the country.

“Let us not be naive here,” Skoda said. “Holding up signs and simply responding with emotion does not get people elected. . . . While this is not the only way that the tea party movement can progress and mature, this is one way that we believe it can seek together the approach to counter the fragmentation that exists today.”

Skoda, who grew up in a family of Democratic politicians near Cleveland, said in an interview that he has spent much of his working life as an executive with UPS and FedEx, opening up markets in Asia and Europe, an experience he said deepened his appreciation of the conservative values of liberty and economic freedom.

The PAC, he said, is not an attempt “to replace the Republican National Committee,” but rather “a way by which people who have worked so hard thus far in the rallies, whose voices have not been heard, will be able to participate with their talents and their treasures — and ultimately assure that the people are elected.”

One emerging set of principles that could align tea party groups is taking shape on the Tea Party Patriots’ Web site, where registered members can contribute to something that might resemble a platform.

“Note it is called the Contract From America, not the Contract With America,” said William Temple, who runs a tea party group in Brunswick, Ga. “We are the ones giving the direction.”

A cheerful man with a broad set of interests — he is a pastor of “an all-black Maranatha” church, a painter, a retired Secret Service and Homeland Security employee, and a historical reenactor — he made these pronouncements using an accent he hoped would sound early American, and he was dressed in period costume as Button Gwinnett, a signer of the Declaration of Independence.

Although some here praised Obama for his energy and for making history, many delegates said concern over his policies has pushed them into political activism for the first time in their lives.

On Thursday night, giving the opening address, former U.S. representative Tom Tancredo (Colo.), who ran for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination as an anti-immigration candidate, railed against Obama and “the cult of multiculturalism.” Americans could be “boiled to death in a cauldron of the nanny state,” he said. “People who couldn’t even spell the word ‘vote,’ or say it in English, put a committed socialist ideologue in the White House.”

When Tancredo said, “His name is Barack Hussein Obama,” the audience booed loudly.

“The race for America is on,” Tancredo said. “The president and his left-wing allies in Congress are going to look at every opportunity to destroy the Constitution before we have a chance to save it. So put your running shoes on.”

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