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While the recent political chatter in Washington has focused on Democrats retiring from Congress, Republicans are leaving the House in greater numbers, a trend that could blunt the party’s momentum heading into the November midterm elections.

Rep. Henry E. Brown Jr. (S.C.) on Monday became the 14th Republican to announce that he will not run for reelection this year. Ten Democrats have said the same, including an attention-grabbing four in the past two months from swing and Republican-leaning districts.

A broad look at those seats suggests more parity, in terms of the two parties’ opportunities and vulnerabilities, than conventional wisdom would suggest.

Each side has three seats won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2008. For Democrats, they are Louisiana’s 3rd District and Tennessee’s 6th and 8th districts; for Republicans, they are Delaware’s at-large seat, Illinois’s 10th District and Pennsylvania’s 6th District.

Both parties face the prospect of tough campaigns in most of those open-seat districts. Nine of the Republican seats are in districts that GOP presidential candidate John McCain either lost or won with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2008. Democrats are defending seven seats that Barack Obama either lost or won with less than 60 percent.

The relative evenness of those numbers belies the perception in Washington that Democrats are rapidly losing altitude — the switch of Rep. Parker Griffith (Ala.) to the GOP being a touchstone in that argument — and are headed for major losses in November.

Retirements are only one factor in the midterms. Republicans still have several advantages and are nearly certain to score double-digit gains in November.

The largest factor in their favor is the weight of history. The first midterm elections for a new president are traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party.

This month will be critical in determining what direction the open-seat landscape is headed. Will a series of Democratic lawmakers — fresh from conversations with their families and nervous about the political environment — decide to step aside? (Keep an eye on such congressmen as Leonard L. Boswell of Iowa and Vic Snyder of Arkansas for an early indication of which way the wind is blowing.) And would those departures prompt even more lawmakers to consider leaving on their own terms?

If that happens, an election cycle that looked like a traditional midterm round for Democrats, with losses in the 20-seat range, could become one in which control of the House is up for grabs.

Expect Republicans to push hard on wavering Democratic lawmakers over the next month, letting them know what they are in for if they decide to seek reelection. But if the GOP’s retirements continue, that pressure could ease.
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BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Iranian authorities arrested a number of opposition figures on Monday in the wake of violent protests a day earlier, Web sites reported, including three top aides to the opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi and Ibrahim Yazdi, leader of the banned Iran Freedom Movement.

The opposition cleric and reformist candidate Mehdi Karroubi also lashed out at the authorities for using deadly force during Sunday’s nationwide protests, in which 10 people were reported to have been killed.

“What has happened to this religious system that it orders the killing of innocent people during the holy day of Ashura?” Mr. Karroubi said in a statement, according to the opposition Jaras Web site.

The death of Ali Moussavi, a 43-year-old nephew of Mr. Moussavi, became another flash point between the police and demonstrators.

The police used tear gas to disperse a group of mourners who gathered outside the Tehran hospital where Mr. Moussavi’s body had been held, the Nowrooz Web site reported. A prominent opposition figure said that the younger Mr. Moussavi was shot to death by assassins on Sunday, and that the authorities took his body to prevent a funeral ceremony.

A 27 year-old journalist who was reporting on the street clashes Sunday was also reported missing. Redha al Basha, who was working for Dubai TV, has not been heard from, said a spokesman for Dubai TV. Mr. Basha was last seen surrounded by security forces in Tehran, witnesses said. The decision by the authorities to use deadly force on the Ashura holiday infuriated many Iranians, and some said the violence appeared to galvanize more traditional religious people who have not been part of the protests so far. Historically, Iranian rulers have honored Ashura’s prohibition of violence, even during wartime.

On Sunday, thick crowds marched down a central avenue in Tehran, defying official warnings of a harsh crackdown on protests as they chanted “death to Khamenei,” referring to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has expressed growing intolerance for political dissent in the country.

They refused to retreat even as the police fired tear gas, charged them with batons and fired warning shots. The police then opened fire directly into the crowd, opposition Web sites said, citing witnesses. At least five people were killed in Tehran, four in the northwestern city of Tabriz, and one in Shiraz in the south, the Web sites reported. Photographs of several victims were circulated widely.

Unlike the other protesters reported killed on Sunday, Ali Moussavi appears to have been assassinated in a political gesture aimed at his uncle, according to Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an opposition figure based in Paris with close ties to the Moussavi family.

Mr. Moussavi was first run over by a sport utility vehicle outside his home, Mr. Makhmalbaf wrote on his Web site. Five men then emerged from the car, and one of them shot him. Government officials took the body late Sunday and warned the family not to hold a funeral, Mr. Makhmalbaf wrote.

In some parts of Tehran, protesters pushed the police back, hurling rocks and capturing several police cars and motorcycles, which they set on fire. Videos posted to the Internet showed scenes of mayhem, with trash bins burning and groups of protesters attacking Basij militia volunteers amid a din of screams.

One video showed a group of protesters setting an entire police station aflame in Tehran. Another showed people carrying off the body of a protester, chanting, “I’ll kill, I’ll kill the one who killed my brother.”

By late afternoon, coils of black smoke rose over central Tehran from dozens of street fires, and smaller groups of protesters continued to skirmish with police and Basij militia members. In the evening, loudspeakers in Imam Hussein Square, where most of the clashes took place, announced that gatherings of more than three people were banned, witnesses said.

There were scattered reports of police officers surrendering, or refusing to fight. Several videos posted online show officers holding up their helmets and walking away from the melee, as protesters pat them on the back in appreciation. In one photograph, a police officer can be seen holding his arms up and wearing a bright green headband, the signature color of the opposition movement.

The Tehran police denied firing on protesters and in an official statement late Sunday said five people had been killed “in suspicious ways.”

Ahmadreza Radan, deputy commander of state security forces in Tehran, said dozens of police officers had been injured, and “some were killed,” the semiofficial news agency ISNA reported.

Protests and clashes also broke out in the cities of Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Arak, Tabriz, Najafabad, Babol, Ardebil and Orumieh, opposition Web sites said.

Foreign journalists have been banned from covering the protests, and the reports could not be independently verified.

If the 10 deaths are confirmed, it would be the highest toll since the summer, when huge crowds took to the streets to protest what they said was rampant fraud in the presidential election won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The White House condemned what it called the “unjust suppression” of civilians by the Iranian government on Sunday.

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