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While the recent political chatter in Washington has focused on Democrats retiring from Congress, Republicans are leaving the House in greater numbers, a trend that could blunt the party’s momentum heading into the November midterm elections.

Rep. Henry E. Brown Jr. (S.C.) on Monday became the 14th Republican to announce that he will not run for reelection this year. Ten Democrats have said the same, including an attention-grabbing four in the past two months from swing and Republican-leaning districts.

A broad look at those seats suggests more parity, in terms of the two parties’ opportunities and vulnerabilities, than conventional wisdom would suggest.

Each side has three seats won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2008. For Democrats, they are Louisiana’s 3rd District and Tennessee’s 6th and 8th districts; for Republicans, they are Delaware’s at-large seat, Illinois’s 10th District and Pennsylvania’s 6th District.

Both parties face the prospect of tough campaigns in most of those open-seat districts. Nine of the Republican seats are in districts that GOP presidential candidate John McCain either lost or won with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2008. Democrats are defending seven seats that Barack Obama either lost or won with less than 60 percent.

The relative evenness of those numbers belies the perception in Washington that Democrats are rapidly losing altitude — the switch of Rep. Parker Griffith (Ala.) to the GOP being a touchstone in that argument — and are headed for major losses in November.

Retirements are only one factor in the midterms. Republicans still have several advantages and are nearly certain to score double-digit gains in November.

The largest factor in their favor is the weight of history. The first midterm elections for a new president are traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party.

This month will be critical in determining what direction the open-seat landscape is headed. Will a series of Democratic lawmakers — fresh from conversations with their families and nervous about the political environment — decide to step aside? (Keep an eye on such congressmen as Leonard L. Boswell of Iowa and Vic Snyder of Arkansas for an early indication of which way the wind is blowing.) And would those departures prompt even more lawmakers to consider leaving on their own terms?

If that happens, an election cycle that looked like a traditional midterm round for Democrats, with losses in the 20-seat range, could become one in which control of the House is up for grabs.

Expect Republicans to push hard on wavering Democratic lawmakers over the next month, letting them know what they are in for if they decide to seek reelection. But if the GOP’s retirements continue, that pressure could ease.
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Some 1,400 activists from 43 countries had gathered in Cairo since Sunday to mark the first anniversary of the Israeli three-week offensive on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Egypt said 100 activists would be allowed to pass through.

“Egyptian authorities made an exception and opened the Rafah border on Wednesday and allowed activists from the Gaza Freedom March to pass through,” Alhamy Aref, secretary-general of the North Sinai governorate, said.

The activists, several hundred of whom were from France, had asked Egypt for permission to cross into Gaza but the Interior Ministry said the march was illegal and a threat to national security.

The group has staged protests almost daily since Sunday in different parts of Egypt, surrounded by a heavy police presence. Such demonstrations are rare in Egypt but no violence broke out and no arrests were made, witnesses and security officials said.

Israel controls the air space, sea access and most of the entry points into the coastal enclave of Gaza.

Egypt controls the Rafah border, imposing restrictions on the movement of Palestinians and some foreigners. It is also building a controversial steel wall along its Gaza border to prevent smuggling.

Talks between Israel and the Palestinians have been suspended since the December start of the Gaza war, in which 1,400 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed.

The U.S. President Barack Obama’s Middle East envoy George Mitchell is expected to visit the region in January for a fresh push to resume the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. But months of Mitchell’s shuttling between the sides yielded no concrete signs of progress in 2009.

Egypt has been hosting talks with different Palestinian political groups to end internal disputes, mainly between the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank and the Islamist group Hamas which controls the Gaza Strip.

Egypt and Germany have also been mediating a possible prisoner exchange by Hamas and Israel.

Egypt has agreed to allow a food and supplies convoy led by independent British Member of Parliament George Galloway to pass into Gaza, but only if it lands by sea at Arish and passes through Rafah.

The convoy was docked in the Jordanian port of Aqaba all last week seeking approval from Egypt to enter via Nuweiba on the Red Sea.

(Reporting by Yusri Mohamed; Writing by Yasmine Saleh; Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

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